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The future of tech: "The Industrial Revolution on steroids"

At the 2023 SIEPR Economic Summit, leading experts on technology and the workplace took a mostly optimistic view of what lies ahead.

They are known as 鈥淎I winters鈥 鈥 when the promise of artificial intelligence isn鈥檛 living up to the hype. And for 40 years, that鈥檚 where moonshot dreams for AI languished, said John Hennessy, the chairman of Google parent Alphabet Inc. and former president of 成人大片.

Then came the launch late last year of ChatGPT, a form of so-called 鈥済enerative AI鈥 that can create its own text, images, and other forms of content.

We鈥檙e not going to see an AI winter for a while.

鈥淭his is going to be Industrial Revolution on steroids,鈥 Hennessy told the hundreds of  policymakers, business leaders, and academics gathered for the 2023 SIEPR Economic Summit.

Hennessy鈥檚 enthusiasm was shared by his three fellow panelists on a session about the future of technology and its role in reimagining the workplace three years after COVID-19 lockdowns ushered in the work-from-home revolution.

鈥淎lmost every company, no matter if it鈥檚 a traditional company or a high-tech company, will have to look at how to leverage AI in every service and every product,鈥 said Eric Yuan, the founder of Zoom. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 the opportunity. At the same time, it鈥檚 also the challenge.鈥

Nick Bloom, the William Eberle Professor of Economics at the 成人大片 School of Humanities and Sciences and SIEPR senior fellow who moderated the discussion, said generative AI could very well be the first major inflection point for productivity growth in nearly 70 years.

鈥淭here鈥檚 only been two turning points in the last several hundred years,鈥 Bloom said. 鈥淲e may be on the cusp of a third.鈥

The impact on jobs

There鈥檚 likely to be some pain along the way, the panelists agreed. But they agreed that ChatGPT won鈥檛 be the jobs boogeyman that many fear.

Karin Kimbrough, the chief economist at LinkedIn and member of SIEPR's Advisory Board, said generative AI will, for many workers, become 鈥渢heir co-pilot鈥 at work 鈥 freeing them to do the abstract thinking that computers can鈥檛. The key is to make sure that workers, especially older ones, have the opportunity to acquire the technical skills so that technology serves as a complement to them and not a substitute for them.

鈥淲e have a [higher education] system where we say, 鈥榊ou should finish all your learning by age 24 and then go off and just be smart for the rest of your career, which makes no sense,鈥 she said.

The future of work from home

Workers love the flexibility of working from home. Employers are far less enthralled 鈥 and are, Kimbrough said, 鈥渧ery aggressively鈥 moving away from remote work. And with offices only about 20-30 percent full, Kimbrough said most CEOs 鈥渁re not pleased that people don鈥檛 want to come in five days a week.鈥

Bloom said the slowdown in the tech sector, and the likelihood of a recession, are giving employers more leverage. Ultimately, however, their pushback will be short-lived.

鈥淚f you鈥檙e looking five, 10 years out, there will be more rather than less working from home,鈥 Bloom said.

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